The Cancer Market Outlook To 2014

Thursday, April 8, 2010

In the current decade, oncology has been one of the most important growth segments among the pharmaceutical markets with a major focus on targeted agents (drug treatments developed to preferentially target those signaling pathways that are disregulated in tumors). Most innovation in oncology over the past 10 years has been driven by scientific advances, particularly in genomics, transcriptomics and proteomics.


In the current decade, oncology has been one of the most important growth segments among the pharmaceutical markets with a major focus on targeted agents (drug treatments developed to preferentially target those signaling pathways that are disregulated in tumors). Most innovation in oncology over the past 10 years has been driven by scientific advances, particularly in genomics, transcriptomics and proteomics.

In the current environment, the successful oncology players of the future will be those that can anticipate protocol evolution and design the most relevant clinical trials. In recent years, biotech companies have fuelled innovation in oncology more than ever before. Partnering with biotech companies is a key (but expensive) source of innovation for many pharma companies as approximately 75% of phase II, III and pre-registration innovative drugs are of biotech origin.

At $47.7bn, cancer is one of the largest, fastest growing markets in the pharmaceutical industry. However, pricing risk remains the key investment concern in oncology. The key concern, however, is not price erosion driven by competitive forces, but price cuts imposed by payors irrespective of the fact that such unilateral price cuts by payors have never occurred in any of the major developed markets and would surely jeopardize the premise on which the entire biopharmaceutical industry has been built.

Key features of this report
* Epidemiological analysis and forecast prevalence of the major cancer indications over the period 2008-14 including lung, breast, colorectal, ovarian cancer markets.
* Forecasts and analysis of the major products in the cancer market over the period 2008-14 spread across the major indications and classes of treatments.
* Overview of key events in the global cancer market that have impacted treatment trends and sales potential across the major cancer indications.
* Strategic and growth analysis of leading pharmaceutical corporations based on sales focus by drug class, currently marketed products and R&D product portfolios.

Scope of this report
* Develop insight into patient potential with the report's coverage of major indications in the cancer segment, the seven largest geographic pharmaceutical markets and 10 largest companies active in the cancer segment today
* Quickly understand how recent events are affecting the performance of major products, and how their marketers are confronting competitive changes in cancer marketplace
* Gain up-to-date competitive intelligence across the cancer indications and understand the major issues affecting key pharmaceutical/biotech players
* Understand which indications have the greatest potential to provide franchise growth, and how pharmaceutical companies are attempting to exploit these opportunities

Key Market Issues
* FDA approves Cervarix for cervical cancer In October 2009, FDA approved GSK's Cervarix for the prevention of pre-cancerous lesions caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 & 18 in women aged 10-25 years. Cervarix's inclusion in children's vaccine program is a major step towards securing reimbursement. Cervarix, expected to launch by the end of 2009, faces direct competition from Merck's Gardasil and will help to reduce the incidence of cervical cancer in future.
* Merck's Gardasil adds US indication of genital warts for boys and men On 16th October 2009, Gardasil's US label was extended to include its use in both men and boys aged 9-26 years of age. The pivotal trial results showed an efficacy of 90.4% while preventing external genital lesions of HPV types 6/11/16/18. In addition, Merck also planned to extend its vaccine patient assistance program providing free Gardasil to 19-26 year old uninsured males meeting eligibility criteria but unable to afford the vaccine.

Key findings from this report
* In 2008, antineoplastic mAbs delivered huge sales of $13.6bn with a market share of 28.6% of total sales. The key antineoplastic mAbs which contributed to the higher market share of this class in 2008 were MabThera (11.0%), Avastin (10.3%), Herceptin (9.7%) and Erbitux (3.4%). Forecast sales of the total antineoplastics market are estimated at $65.2bn in 2014.
* Roche is the global market leader in cancer, holding the highest market share of 29.2% ($14.0bn sales) in 2008 based on sales from (MabThera, Avastin, Herceptin, Tarceva and Xeloda). Roche's strength in the cancer market has been bolstered by its acquisition of Genentech and purchase of majority stakes in Chugai, which has provided additional breadth to its portfolio.
* Eli Lilly's acquisition of ImClone will increase the former's flow of high-quality, innovative new therapies. The transaction will immediately enable Eli Lilly to offer physicians and their patients a complementary portfolio of leading oncolytic agents and targeted therapies including Gemzar, Alimta and Erbitux.

Key questions answered
* What will be the major growth indications in the cancer segment over the period 2008-14?
* Which companies were the winners and losers in the cancer segment in 2008?
* How have recent major launches from companies such as Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, AstraZeneca, Novartis and Eli Lilly performed? * Which companies will become the key players in the cancer segment over the period 2008-14?
* Which products will be impacted by generic competitors over the period 2008-14?

Table of Contents: The Cancer Market Outlook to 2014

Executive Summary 12
Epidemiology of Cancer 12
Global Market Analysis 13
Pipeline Analysis 14
Competitive Landscape 15

Chapter 1 Scope and methodology 18
Scope 18
Methodology 19

Chapter 2 Overview and epidemiology of cancer indications 22
Summary 22
Introduction 23
Overview 23
Cancer risk factors 23
Lung cancer 24
Overview 24
Diagnosis, treatment and management 25
Epidemiology 27
NSCLC 27
SCLC 28
Forecast epidemiology 29
NSCLC 29
SCLC 30
Colorectal cancer 31
Overview 31
Diagnosis, treatment and management 31
Epidemiology 32
Forecast epidemiology 33
Breast cancer 34
Overview 34
Diagnosis, treatment and management 35
Epidemiology 36
Forecast epidemiology 37
Ovarian cancer 38
Overview 38
Diagnosis, treatment and management 39
Epidemiology 40
Forecast epidemiology 41
Uterine and cervical cancer 42
Overview 42
Diagnosis, treatment and management 43
Epidemiology 44
Forecast epidemiology 44
Leukemia 45
Overview 45
Diagnosis, treatment and management 47
Epidemiology 48
Forecast epidemiology 48
Prostate cancer 49
Overview 49
Diagnosis, treatment and management 50
Epidemiology 51
Forecast epidemiology 51
Pancreatic cancer 53
Overview 53
Diagnosis, treatment and management 53
Epidemiology 54
Forecast epidemiology 54
Lymphomas 56
Overview 56
Diagnosis, treatment and management 56
Epidemiology 57
Forecast epidemiology 58
Head and neck cancer 60
Overview 60
Diagnosis, treatment and management 61
Epidemiology 62
Forecast epidemiology 62

Chapter 3 Global market analysis 66
Summary 66
Introduction 67
Market analysis by country 67
Market analysis by drug class 69
Leading brand dynamics 70
MabThera (rituximab) -Roche/Genentech 71
Avastin (bevacizumab) - Roche/Genentech 73
Herceptin (trastuzumab) - Roche/Genentech/Chugai 74
Glivec/Gleevec (imatinib) - Novartis 75
Taxotere (docetaxel) - Sanofi-Aventis 76
Leading brands by type of cancer 77
Key recent events in the cancer market 80
FDA approves Cervarix for cervical cancer 80
Merck's Gardasil adds US indication of genital warts for boys and men 80
Roche's Avastin is filed for first-line breast cancer in Japan 80
Eisai to file first in-house breast cancer drug in major markets 81
Novartis's Tasigna bolsters its CML franchise 81
Antineoplastics 82
Competitive dynamics of antineoplastics 82
Leading brands of antineoplastics 84
Antineoplastic mAb market analysis 86
Market dynamics 86
Key brands analysis 86
Antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors 88
Market dynamics 88
Key brands analysis 89
Vinca alkaloid market analysis 89
Market dynamics 89
Key brands analysis 90
Anti-metabolites 90
Market dynamics 90
Key brands analysis 90
Platinum compounds 92
Market dynamics 92
Key brands analysis 92
Antineoplastic sales forecast 93
Cytostatic hormonal therapies 94
Competitive dynamics of cytostatic hormonal therapies 94
Leading brands of cytostatic hormonal therapies 95
Cytostatic gonad hormone analog market analysis 97
Market dynamics 97
Key brands analysis 97
Aromatase inhibitors 98
Market dynamics 98
Key brands analysis 99
Anti-androgens 101
Market dynamics 101
Key brand analysis 102
Cytostatic hormonal therapy sales forecast 103
Global cancer market sales forecast 104

Chapter 4 Pipeline analysis 106
Summary 106
Introduction 107
Key trends in R&D 107
Targeted therapies are changing the treatment regimen of cancer 107
Biomarkers are personalizing oncology treatment 108
Cancer vaccines enhance the body's immune response 109
Pricing is becoming a major issue for cancer patients 109
Combination treatments are becoming the treatment of choice 110
Leading drugs in development 111
Phase III and pending approval compounds 112
Enzastaurin - Eli Lilly 112
BiovaxID - Biovest International and Accentia Biopharmaceuticals 115
Recentin (cediranib) - AstraZeneca 117
Zactima (vandetanib) - AstraZeneca 120
Axitinib (AG-13736) - Pfizer 124
Provenge (sipuleucel-T) - Dendreon 126
Recently approved/marketed drugs 127
Arzerra (ofatumumab) - GSK/Genmab 127
Afinitor (everolimus) - Novartis 130
Iressa (gefitinib) - AstraZeneca 132
Tykerb/Tyverb (lapatinib) - GSK 133
Votrient (pazopanib) - GSK 137
Pipeline forecast of key compounds 139
Factors affecting forecasts 139

Chapter 5 Competitive landscape 142
Summary 142
Introduction 143
Sales performance of leading players 143
Roche 146
Sales focus by drug class 146

Regional sales distribution 147
Marketed product portfolio 148
Pipeline analysis 150
Strategic and growth analysis 151
Drivers of growth 151
Resistors of growth 152
Sanofi-Aventis 153
Sales focus by drug class 153
Regional sales distribution 154
Marketed product portfolio 155
Pipeline analysis 156
Strategic and growth analysis 157
Drivers of growth 157
Resistors of growth 158
AstraZeneca 159
Sales focus by drug class 159
Regional sales distribution 160
Marketed product portfolio 161
Pipeline analysis 162
Strategic and growth analysis 163
Drivers of growth 163
Resistors of growth 163
Novartis 164
Sales focus by drug class 164
Regional sales distribution 165
Marketed product portfolio 166
Pipeline analysis 167
Strategic and growth analysis 168
Drivers of growth 168
Resistors of growth 168
Eli Lilly 169
Sales focus by drug class 169
Regional sales distribution 169
Marketed product portfolio 170
Pipeline analysis 171
Strategic and growth analysis 171
Drivers of growth 171
Resistors of growth 172
Pfizer 173
Sales focus by drug class 173
Regional sales distribution 174
Marketed product portfolio 175
Pipeline analysis 176
Strategic and growth analysis 177
Drivers of growth 177
Resistors of growth 177
Takeda 177
Sales focus by drug class 178
Regional sales distribution 179
Marketed product portfolio 179
Pipeline analysis 180
Strategic and growth analysis 181
Drivers of growth 181
Resistors of growth 181
Bristol-Myers Squibb 182
Sales focus by drug class 182
Regional sales distribution 183
Marketed product portfolio 184
Pipeline analysis 185
Strategic and growth analysis 186
Drivers of growth 186
Resistors of growth 186

Chapter 6 Appendix 188
IMS Data 188
Antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents 188
L1: Antineoplastics 188
L2: Cytostatic hormone therapy 188
Forecast factors 188
Glossary 189
Abbreviations used in this report 189
Index 191